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«Doctor of Philosophy In Environmental Design and Planning Annie R. Pearce, Chair Michael J. Garvin Mido Chang Georg Reichard Norbert M. Lechner ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

The Development of Models to Identify Relationships Between First Costs of

Green Building Strategies and Technologies and Life Cycle Costs for Public

Green Facilities

by

Yong Han Ahn

Dissertation submitted to the faculty of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in

partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

In

Environmental Design and Planning

Annie R. Pearce, Chair

Michael J. Garvin

Mido Chang

Georg Reichard

Norbert M. Lechner February 18, 2010 Blacksburg, Virginia Keywords: Green Building, First Cost, Life Cycle Cost, Multiple Regression Analysis Copyright 2010, Yong Han Ahn The Development of Models to Identify Relationships Between First Costs of Green Building Strategies and Technologies and Life Cycle Cost for Public Green Facilities Yong Han Ahn

ABSTRACT

Public buildings and other public facilities are essential for the functioning and quality of life in modern societies, but they also frequently have a significant negative impact on the natural environment. Public agencies, with their large portfolios of facilities, have faced considerable challenges in recent years in minimizing their negative environmental impacts and energy consumption and coping with shortages of financial capital to invest in new facilities and operate and maintain existing ones, while still meeting their mission goals. These range from the need to provide a quality workplace for their staff to providing a public service and long term benefits to the public. The concept of green building has emerged as a set of objectives and practices designed to reduce negative environment impacts and other challenges while enhancing the functionality of built facilities. However, the prevailing belief related to implementing green building is that incorporating Green Building Strategies and Technologies (GBSTs) increases the initial cost of constructing a facility while potentially reducing its life cycle costs. Thus, this research deals with optimizing the design of individual facilities to balance the initial cost investment for GBSTs versus their potential Life Cycle Cost (LCC) savings without the need to conduct detailed life cycle cost analysis during the early capital planning and budget phases in public sector projects. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach for modeling the general relationship between investments in initial costs versus savings in LCCs involved in implementing green building strategies in public capital projects.

To address the research question, this study developed multiple regression models to identify the relationships between GBSTs and their initial cost premiums, operating costs, and LCCs. The multiple regression models include dummy variables because this is a convenient way of applying a single regression equation to represent several nominal variables, which here consist of initial, operating, maintenance, and repair and replacement costs, and ordinal variables, which in this case are the GBST alternatives considered. These new regression models can be used to identify the relationship between GBST alternatives, initial cost premiums, annual operating costs and LCC in the earliest stage of a project, when public agencies are at the capital planning and budgeting stages of facility development, without necessarily needing to know the precise details of design and implementation for a particular building. In addition, this study also proposes and tests a method to generate all the necessary cost data based on building performance models and industry accepted standard cost data.

This statistical approach can easily be extended to accommodate additional GBSTs that were not included in this study to identify the relationship between their initial cost premium and their potential LCC saving at the earliest stage of facility development. In addition, this approach will be a useful tool for other institutional facility owners who manage large facility portfolios with significant annual facility investments and over time should help them minimize the environmental impacts caused by their facilities.

iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

There are many people who have helped and guide me through my doctoral study in Myers-Lawson School of Construction (MLSOC) at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. I would like to start by stating my sincere appreciation to Dr. Annie R.

Pearce, my advisor. Under her supervision, inspiration, motivation, and financial supports for the last 4 years, I can lay the strong foundation of my academic scholarship, and be ready to be an independent scholar in construction. Working with Dr. Pearce at Virginia Tech has been an indelible impression on me and I also want to be a close friend and strong collaborator to build a sustainable environment in the construction industry.

In addition to working with the “great advisor”, I was also very lucky to have the great committee members including Dr. Mido Chang, Dr. Michael J. Garvin, Dr.

Georg Reichard, and Professor Norbert M. Lecher. Dr. Chang always teaches and motivates me to not only complete my dissertation but also to be a true academic scholar in academia. Dr. Garvin gave a lot of his insightful comments and advice in my dissertation and attitude. Dr. Reichard generously spent many hours of his time to share his experience in building science and energy modeling. Finally, Professor, Lechner gave a significant influence on my life and the areas of Ph.D. study, sustainability which I have decided to study after numerous conversations with him.





I am also appreciated to Dr. Hyun Ik Shin at Kumoh National Institute of Technology because he gave me strong encouragement and motivation to pursue my study. I would like to acknowledge Dr. Hyuksoo Kwon, my research collaborator and a senior in my high school in Yesan South Korea because we almost always study together at the Graduate Life Cent and shared our thoughts and visions for research and also conducted several collaborative researches.

I would like to acknowledge the sources of funding I drew from during my term as a GRA, including the MLSOC doctoral fellowship, the USPS, NAVFAC, and NSF. In addition, I also truly appreciated to Rob McNiece-Director of the Facilities Energy Program at the USPS, Terry Schubert-Energy specialist at the USPS, Deborah Crawford-Postmaster in the Blacksburg Post Office, Greg Stucky-Postmaster in the Bleaton Post Office, and Robert W. Brown-President of R.W. Brown Associates for providing facility and operating data in this study.

iv Thanks also go to my colleagues and close friends: Dr. Young Han Jung, Dr. Victor Quagraine, Dr. Hyuksoo Kwon, Chris Strock, Sandeep Langer, Sushil Sheony, Dr. Chang Hyun Jo, Dr. Jin Soo Park, Kathleen Short, Sera Park, Bianca Lopez, Dr. Ryan Kim, Jan Szechi (Professional editor) and many others.

In addition, I am truly appreciated to my father, Soongil An and my mother Yeonhee Choi because they are my spiritual and physical force to complete my study and also supports over 10 years of my study in Korea, Australia, and the United States. I also acknowledge my brother Yonggu An, my sister Jeonhee An, my father-in-law, Deukwon Kim, my mother-in-law Gwanghee Kim, my brother-in-law, Donghyun Kim, and my sister-in-law, Soojung Kim. Without their endless love and strong support, none of my achievements would be possible.

Finally, I graciously appreciated my lovely wife, Hee Jung Kim and my baby delivered in July 2010. Without her love and strong supports, I could not complete my study at Virginia Tech. Hee Jung commuted every weekend for over two and half years to see and take care of me from Charlottesville to Blacksburg or Greenville while pursuing her graduate study at the University of Virginia. Lastly, I am really excited to see our baby delivered to our family in July 2010.

–  –  –

xvi Table 9.5 Energy Consumption and Costs for Wall Insulation…………………… 187 Table 9.6 Electricity Savings Achievable by Improving the Level of Wall 188 Insulation………………………………………………………………..

Table 9.7 Sensitivity Analysis for the Discount Rates (Wall Insulation)………….

190 Table 9.8 Net Cash Flow Amount among Three Alternatives…………………….. 191 Table 9.9 Energy Consumption and Costs for Roof Insulation………..…………. 192 Table 9.10 Electricity Savings Achieved by Improving Roof Insulation….……… 193 Table 9.11a Sensitivity Analysis for Different Discount Rates (Roof Insulation)... 195 Table 9.11b Net Cash Flow Amount among Three Roof Insulation Alternatives.. 196 Table 9.12 Costs for Lighting Alternatives………………………………………... 198 Table 9.13 Sensitivity Analysis for Discount Rates in Lighting………………….. 200 Table 9.14 Sensitivity Analysis for Future Electricity Prices in Lighting……...…. 201 Table 9.15 Costs for Efficiency of HVAC Systems………………………………. 203 Table 9.16 Sensitivity Analysis for the Discount Rates (Heat Pump System)..…... 204 Table 9.17 Sensitivity Analysis for the Future Electricity Prices…………………. 206 Table 9.18 Base, Best and Worst Scenarios (The Discount Rate of 3% and Real 208 Electricity Price Index)………………………………………………….

Table 9.19 Minimum LCC Scenarios in Different Uncertainties……………….

.. 209 Table 9.20 Minimum Annual Energy Consumption Scenarios…………………… 210 Table 9.21 Scenarios with Minimum Energy Consumption………………………. 211 Table 9.22 Minimum First Cost Premium Scenarios……………………………… 213 Table 9.23 Scenarios with Minimum First Cost Premiums……………………….. 213 Table 9.24 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis……………………………… 221 Table 9.25 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis……………………………… 223 Table 9.26 Results of Multiple Regression Analysis……………………………… 225

–  –  –

1.1 Introduction Built facilities are essential for the function and quality of life in modern society. Built facilities can be divided into two categories, including private and public facilities, based on the ownership of the facilities. Even though private facilities are a major portion of built facilities ($16.7 trillion or 76% of total built facilities), public facilities ($5.3 trillion) also are essential to provide quality workplaces, public service and long term benefits to the public to help national defense, foreign policy, scientific and medical research and other aims (NRC 2004; U.S. Census 2009; USGAO 2004; Vanegas 2004). Due to the significance of facilities in the United States, significant resources are required to not only build new facilities but also operate, maintain and demolish existing facilities. In 2009 the seasonally adjusted annual construction spending was about $1,053 billion composed of $770 billion in the private sector and $317 billion in the public sector (U.S. Census 2009). Because of significant annual spending in facilities, the construction industry is one of the America’s most important industries with over 12% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 7.69 million jobs (Russell et al. 2007; U.S. Census 2009; USDOL 2009).

Even though facilities are a fundamental element in modern society, they have many negative impacts on the natural environment. The impact on the environment over the life of facilities includes ozone layer depletion, global warming, acidification potential, smog, solid waste, ecosystem destruction, air and water pollution, and natural resource depletion, all of which are of increasing importance in our daily life (Ahn and Pearce 2007; Ding 2004; Ding 2005; DuBose et al. 2007; Kibert 2005; Langston and Ding 2001; OECD 2003; Shah 2006;

Spence and Mulligan 1995; Vanegas 2004). Through exploring more statistical data related to environmental concerns in the built environment in the United States, activities including developing, maintaining and operating facilities in the built environment are responsible for (Fisk 2000; Fisk and Rosenfeld 1997; Kats 2003a; OECD 2003; Roodman and Lenssen 1995;

USDOE 2008a):

 17 % of fresh water withdrawals  25 % of wood harvest 1    40 % of energy consumed  72 % of electricity consumed  50 % of fossil fuels consumed  $60 billion in medical expenses due to sick building syndrome  136 million tons of building-related construction and demolition debris  30 % - 50 % of total waste generation  25 % of Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions  39 % of all CO2 emission.

These environmental concerns and problems related to facilities have been recognized not only in the construction industry but also public agencies including federal, state, local governments and their agencies, both because of their missions and goals and because of their large portfolio of facilities. As a result, public agencies face considerable challenges minimizing the negative impacts caused by their facilities while still meeting mission requirements within budget constraints. Given the recognition of environmental concerns and problems associated with facilities, the concept of sustainability, sustainable development, sustainable construction, environmental friendly building or green building have emerged and are considered as potential methods of minimizing those environmental concerns and problems and maximizing potential economic and social benefits while preserving or enhancing functionality of facilities. In this study, those potential methods are called “Green Building” even though the meaning of each term is a little different. While there are many definitions related to green building, this study quotes the green building definition as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) because the study eventually connects to the public sector. The USEPA defines green

building as (USEPA 2008b):

“The practice of creating structures and using processes that are environmentally responsible and resource-efficient throughout a building's life-cycle from siting to design, construction, operation, maintenance, renovation and deconstruction.

This practice expands and complements the classical building design concerns of economy, utility, durability, and comfort.”.

2  



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