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« A thesis approved to the Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Process Engineering at the Brandenburg University of  Technology in Cottbus - ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

Improvement of Flood Risk Assessment under

Climate Change in Ho Chi Minh City with GIS

Applications



A thesis approved to the Faculty of Environmental Sciences

and Process Engineering at the Brandenburg University of



Technology in Cottbus - Senftenberg in partial fulfillment of the

requirement for the award of the academic degree of Doctor of

Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Environmental Sciences.

by

Master of Science

Tran Thong Nhat

Matriculation Number: 3000078

from Song Cau Town, Phu Yen Province, Viet Nam Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Schmidt Supervisor: apl. Prof. Dr-Ing. habil. Frank Molkenthin Day of the oral examination: July 9, 2014 Entwicklung des Hochwasserrisikos beeinflusst durch den Klimawandel in Ho Chi Minh Stadt mittels GIS Von der Fakultät für Umweltwissenschaften und Verfahrenstechnik der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität Cottbus zur Erlangung des Akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Philosophie (Ph.D.) in Umweltwissenschaften genehmigte Dissertation vorgelegt von Master of Science Tran Thong Nhat Matriculation Number: 3000078 aus Song Cau Town, Phu Yen Province, Viet Nam Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Schmidt Gutachter: apl. Prof. Dr-Ing. habil. Frank Molkenthin Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: July 9, 2014 „Gedruckt mit Unterstützung des Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes“ Declaration/Affiant Declaration/ Affiant The following Philosophy of Doctor thesis was prepared in my own words without any additional help. All used sources of literature are listed at the end of the thesis.

I hereby grant to Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus – Senftenberg permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this document in whole and in part.

Cottbus, December 17 2013 Tran Thong Nhat Tran Thong Nhat i Dedication Dedication The first dedication is given my parents who always wish their children attaining further steps in the way of human knowledge. I also want to dedicate the thesis to my son who usually play and make obstreperousness beside as I did the research. The final I would like to dedicate to my wife who always suggests a lot of strange ideas and sometimes cooks for a funny meal Tran Thong Nhat ii Acknowledgement Acknowledgement To make the research in Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus – Senftenberg I received many supports from persons and organizations. It is very difficult to give list of thank that can express my gratitude satisfactorily.

The first thank I would like to give to Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c Michael Schmidt and Dr. Harry Storch, who brought the chance for me participating to this research by enrollment and supervision for whole time of the research with valuable comments and advices.

The second thank I would like to give to BMBF and DAAD which supported for fund within time of the research.

I am also indebted to Mr. Ho Long Phi who consumed a lot of time to discuss and address valuable ideas for the research. Moreover, he also supported and provided for collecting data for my research that needs for a long time and is very close relationship with the data management organizations in the Vietnam situation.

It is a pleasure to thank my friends in Vietnam, Mr. Phan Nguyen Viet and Mr.

Nguyen Hong Dung who helped in collecting data. Additionally, I also want to give thank to Mr. Hoang Tung who is always willing to support for data that he is managing. I would like to thank Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Kim Loi and Mr. Bao Van Tuy who supported for me in the updating researches in Ho Chi Minh City relating to climate change.

I am very grateful for the advices and consultant from apl. Prof. Dr. Manfred Wanner, apl. Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Frank Molkenthin, Dr. Dmytro Palekhov, Mr. Nigel Keith Downes, and Mr. Hendrik Rujner. Their supports are very useful for my presentation in the defense. Additionally, I also want to give thank to Mr. Le Duc Tho and Ms.

Antje Katzschner who support for translation of the abstract.

Finally, I indeed thank to the staff in the project Megacity City Research Project. Ho Chi Minh - Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Adaptation to Climate Change Framework and many other people whom I can not list all them here.

However they have had a lot of the supports in the live, study and administration issues to authority in Cottbus and BTU.

–  –  –

Table of Content Declaration/ Affiant

Dedication…

Acknowledgement

List of Abbreviations

Table of Content

List of Figures

List of Tables

Abstract………..

Chapter 1. Introduction

1. Statement of problem

2. Aims and objectives

2.1. Aims

2.2. Objectives

3. Significance of the study

4. Methodology

5. Content summary

Chapter 2. Literature Review

1. Study area

2. Geographic information system (GIS)

3. Flood models

4. Climate change

–  –  –

5. Researches related to the thesis

Chapter 3. Data and database

1. Collecting data

2. Editing and correcting data

3. Population data

4. Analyzing and calculating climate data





4.1. Identifying climate change trend and rules

4.2. Identifying the future time point to assess flood risk

4.3. Identifying peaks and their appearance number of the tide level................ 27 4.4. Calculating climate data at the future time point

Chapter 4. Building Flood Model and Flooding Maps

1. Selecting a suitable flood model for the research

1.1. Build criteria of selection

1.2. Analysis and selection the most suitable flood model

2. Interpolating roads elevations

3. Buildings height interpolation

4. Classifying the rivers causing flood

5. Building the flooding model

6. Results of flood model and flooding maps

6.1. Digital Terrain model and drainage system

6.2. Flooded area maps

6.3. Flooding depth modeling for the research

6.3.1 Method

6.3.2 Result and discussion

6.4. Flooding duration modeling for the research

6.4.1 Method

6.4.2 Result and discussion

Tran Thong Nhat vii Table of Content 6.5. Flooding frequency modeling for the research

6.5.1 Method

6.5.2 Result and discussion

Chapter 5. Flood Risks of Houses

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Result and discussion

3.1. Affected areas

3.2. Depth grades

3.3. Duration grades

3.4. Frequency grades

Chapter 6. Flood Risk of Population

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Affected population

3.2. Depth grades

3.3. Duration grades

3.4. Frequency grades

Chapter 7. Flood Risk of Land Use

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Affected areas

3.2. Depth grades

3.3. Duration grades

3.4. Frequency grades

–  –  –

Chapter 8. Conclusion and Recommendation

1. Conclusions

1.1. Flood model and flooded areas in Ho Chi Minh City

1.2. Flood risk of houses

1.3. Flood risk of population

1.4. Flood risk of land use

2. Recommendations

2.1. Authorities and decision makers

2.2. Planner

2.3. Outlooks and further researches

Appendixes.

Appendix A.1: Tide peaks and their duration (hour) at levels 1.50m and 1.85m….

Appendix A.2: Tide peaks and their frequency (time/month) at levels

1.50m and 1.85m

Appendix B.1: Land use types at flooding depth grades in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Appendix B. 2: Land Use Types in Flooding Duration grades in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Appendix B. 3: Land use types at flooding frequency grades in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Appendix C: Land use classes transferred from UST

Literatures and References

–  –  –

List of Figures Fig. 1. 1: Methodology flowchart

Fig. 4. 1: Flow chart of the interpolation procedure

Fig. 4. 2: Principle of flooded area model

Fig. 4. 3: Digital Terrain Model and drainage system in Ho Chi Minh City........41 Fig. 4. 4: Flooded area map at the tide levels in urban zones Ho Chi Minh City.42 Fig. 4. 5: Flooded areas at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City...44 Fig. 4. 6: Flooded areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 7: Flooding depth maps at 1.50m tide level in urban zones Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 8: Flooding depth maps at 1.85m tide level in urban zones Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 9: Flooded areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 10: Flooded areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 11: Flooded areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 12: Flooding duration maps at 1.50m tide level in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 13: Flooding duration maps at 1.85m tide level in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 14: Flooded areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 15: Flooded areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tran Thong Nhat x List of Figures Fig. 4. 16: Flooding frequency maps at 1.50m tide level in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 4. 17: Flooding frequency maps at 1.85m tide level in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 1: Affected houses map at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City................72 Fig. 5. 2: Affected house areas at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 3: Affected house areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 4: Affected house areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 5: Affected house areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 6: Affected house areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 7: Affected house areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 5. 8: Affected house areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 1: Affected inhabitant at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 2: Affected inhabitants so flooding depth grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 3: Affected inhabitants of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 4: Affected inhabitants of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tran Thong Nhat xi List of Figures Fig. 6. 5: Affected inhabitants of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 6: Affected inhabitants of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 6. 7: Affected inhabitants of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 1: Flooded land use maps at 1.50m tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City.....106 Fig. 7. 2: Flooded land use maps at 1.85m tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City.....107 Fig. 7. 3: Areas of affected land use types at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 4: Flooded areas of land use types at the tide levels in urban zones Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 5: Flooded areas of built up types at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 6: Flooded areas of built up types at the tide levels in flooding depth grades in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 7: Flooded areas of built up types at tide levels in flooding duration grades in Ho Chi Minh City

Fig. 7. 8: Flooded areas of built up types at tide levels in flooding frequency grades in Ho Chi Minh City

–  –  –

List of Tables Tab. 2. 1: Increasing the number of heavy rains over time serial

Tab. 2. 2: Sea level rises SLR (cm) compared with SL of period 1980 - 1999....20 Tab. 3. 1: The summary of data to use in the research

Tab. 3. 2: Sea level rising SLR (cm) relate to SL of period 1980 - 1999 in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 3. 3: Interval average tide level increment (cm) at the forecast times in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 3. 4: Tide height and frequency in 2030 with daily tide level peaks............28 Tab. 3. 5: Frequencies of daily sea level peaks over 1.5m in three emission scenarios and average times per month at year 2030

Tab. 4. 1: Flooded areas at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City..43 Tab. 4. 2: Flooded areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 4. 3: Flooded areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 4. 4: Flooded areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 4. 5: Flooded areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 4. 6: Flooded areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 4. 7: Flooded areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 1: Affected house areas at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tran Thong Nhat xiii List of Tables Tab. 5. 2: Affected house areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 3: Affected house areas of flooding depth grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 4: Affected house areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 5: Affected house areas of flooding duration grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 6: Affected house areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in Ho Chi Minh City

Tab. 5. 7: Affected house areas of flooding frequency grades at the tide levels in urban zones of Ho Chi Minh City



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