WWW.DISSERTATION.XLIBX.INFO
FREE ELECTRONIC LIBRARY - Dissertations, online materials
 
<< HOME
CONTACTS



Pages:   || 2 | 3 |

«Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium Orlando, Fla. January 8–10, 2014 Copyright 2014 by the Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved by the ...»

-- [ Page 1 ] --

Living to 100: Socioeconomic Implications of Increased Longevity

Rick Gorvett, FCAS, ASA, CERA, MAAA, ARM, FRM, Ph.D.

Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium

Orlando, Fla.

January 8–10, 2014

Copyright 2014 by the Society of Actuaries.

All rights reserved by the Society of Actuaries. Permission is granted to make brief excerpts for a

published review. Permission is also granted to make limited numbers of copies of items in this

monograph for personal, internal, classroom or other instructional use, on condition that the foregoing copyright notice is used so as to give reasonable notice of the Society’s copyright. This consent for free limited copying without prior consent of the Society does not extend to making copies for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for inclusion in new collective works or for resale.

Living to 100: Socioeconomic Implications of Increased Longevity Rick Gorvett, FCAS, ASA, CERA, MAAA, ARM, FRM, Ph.D.1 Abstract Most actuarial explorations of increased longevity have, quite understandably, focused on direct financial implications for things like health care costs, retirement systems, and social security or other public policy provisions. But future life extension has many other potential implications, both direct and indirect, for various socioeconomic factors, which in turn have the potential to affect the actuarial valuation of future risk contingencies. This paper examines a sampling of the socioeconomic issues emerging from the possibility of substantially increased longevity. Because of the complexity and interrelatedness of these issues, actuarial and risk modeling of this prospective environment could be a significant challenge.

I. Introduction While there is large variability between specific projections of human life extension in both the near and far future, one thing seems clear: Expected lifetimes will increase, possibly significantly. Historically, expected lifespans have increased primarily because of improvements with respect to infant mortality. At least in developed countries, that source of expected lifespan improvement has largely been exhausted. Nevertheless, going forward, scientific and medical advances are anticipated to continue (although to what degree is open to much debate), and late-life improvements will be the primary source of life extension.

1 Director, Actuarial Science Program, and State Farm Companies Foundation Scholar in Actuarial Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The author enthusiastically thanks three anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions, which not only improved this paper but provided much food for thought regarding additional research.

1 Actuarial science, of all professions, is one of the most interdisciplinary in the scope and breadth of the factors relevant to its analysis. Most actuarial explorations of enhanced longevity have, quite understandably, focused on direct financial implications for things like health care costs, retirement funding, and social security or other public policy provisions. But increased longevity has many other implications, both direct and indirect, for social and economic factors with the potential to affect the actuarial valuation of future risk contingencies.

This paper examines a variety of socioeconomic issues and implications emerging from anticipated increases in longevity. By exploring a sample of these issues, the intention is to demonstrate how complex and interrelated these issues, taken as a whole, can be. Nevertheless, to model future risks, including the parameterization of the many variables and factors involved, actuaries will need to appreciate these issues and their interactions. This is a difficult but exciting challenge and will require an understanding of the total future environment both at a holistic macro-philosophical level and at a quantitative-analytical level.

Section II of this paper provides a brief summary of the scientific and medical advances that have led us here, to the realization that significant increases to human longevity are likely imminent and, at the very least, need to be prepared for. Sections III, IV and V discuss some of the major issues resulting from this development. These issues are categorized respectively as economic, family and ethical issues. The listing of issues (and the discussion of any one issue) is not intended to be complete and thorough, but rather a sampling that demonstrates the complex thought process necessary to fully appreciate the modeling challenge. Section VI concludes and summarizes.

II. Scientific and Medical Background Over the past 100 years, expected human lifespans have increased by about 30 years—an exceptionally large increase, whether considered as an absolute number or as a percentage change. This increase has a variety of important causes: scientific and technological innovations, pharmaceutical advances (perhaps most significantly antibiotics), sanitation and general health care improvements, and some cultural factors.

2 The interesting thing about the historical increases in longevity is that they have primarily occurred at the beginning of the lifespan—infant mortality has decreased substantially (probably to the point where there is little more that can be gained, life expectancy-wise, in this area, at least in the industrialized world). Furthermore, the additional 30 years of life expectancy has not simply been “tacked on” to the retirement phase at the end of life—it has affected many aspects of how people live and corresponded to better health overall.2 The extension of life has, to some degree, been desired by most cultures. In some cases, tradition holds that eternal life was once a reality for humans but it was taken away because of one or more transgressions against god or nature.3 In some other cultural traditions and myths, there is a search or striving by mortal humans for immortality, through a traveling quest,4 through a search for an elixir of life5 or even through trickery,6 that ultimately fails,7 sometimes disastrously. Thus, in many traditions, there is an acknowledgement that striving to live beyond what humans can rightfully expect is somehow “tempting fate,” and will not end well.





Recently, there have been many books, articles and other media that have described, and prescribed, diets or other approaches to dramatically extend life. Some of these efforts have been met with a healthy skepticism.8 However—and perhaps partly because of the increasing number of such books, as well as great advances in research and medical technology—the science and biology associated with life extension recently seems to have gained considerable respect, perhaps even becoming fashionable or trendy. There are several good reasons for this.

For example, according to Duncan (2012), 2 Admittedly, there are some concerns, like obesity, that have emerged recently as potential problems that could threaten the degree to which greater longevity is achieved.

3 One interpretation of the book of Genesis, especially when supplemented by certain passages in the New Testament, is that Adam and Eve, by sinning, lost eternal life for humans and introduced death into the world.

4 In Epic of Gilgamesh, the eponymous character, grieving at the death of his companion Enkidu, seeks immortality but is unable to achieve it, and eventually realizes his mortal skills and gifts make even a finite life worth living.

5 Qin Shi Huang, the first emperor of a unified China in the third century B.C., had court alchemists and physicians search for an eternal-life-giving potion, although he probably died earlier than he otherwise would have due to the presence of mercury in many of the attempted concoctions.

6 For example, in Greek mythology, Sisyphus tried to outsmart Hades and Persephone and avoid death, only to end up eternally pushing a boulder up a hill.

And we haven’t even mentioned some far more recent examples—such as Voldemort!

7 8 Holliday (2007, chapter 9) describes some of these efforts.

–  –  –

To Duncan’s two items one could add a third point: Over the last decade or so, evidence has accumulated that aging might not be necessary in all parts of the animal kingdom. For example, hydra seem to be virtually immortal (Kirkwood 1999). This is still a contentious issue but seems to be accepted by many.

The reference in Duncan’s second observation is primarily to calorie restriction, which some investigators have found to provide evidence of successful life-extension in certain simple animal species.9 However, other approaches involving restriction or inhibition have also been associated with life extension. For example, according to Kenyon (2011),

–  –  –

So there is some evidence that, at least in some animal species, it is possible to favorably affect life expectancy. But how does this potentially apply to humans? While it is difficult to do controlled laboratory studies of life extension on a relatively long-lived species like humans, certain characteristics in people have been observed to be associated with health and longevity.

For example, Friedman and Martin (2011), reporting on an eight-decade study that followed many lives, found the best early predictor of long life is “conscientiousness”—i.e., individuals being basically attentive, thorough and organized. They ascribe three reasons for the predictive nature of this trait: Conscientious people probably make better health and risk decisions, they 9 It is still very unclear whether these accomplishments have any potential applicability to humans.

–  –  –

So, the science of life-extension has become acceptable, progress is being made, and we can begin to identify the traits in humans that seem to be associated with longevity. What about the future? To what degree can we project successful lifespan enhancement into the future? The answer, of course, is that no one knows for sure—but there are lots of opinions, and they can vary quite substantially. For example, people like Kurzweil and Grossman and de Grey and Rae believe we are very close to achieving a precedent-shattering improvement in human lifespans.

–  –  –

Other commentators and researchers, while not necessarily pessimistic, are much more moderate in their projections. They anticipate continued improvements in human life expectancy but not necessarily to the degree that some have claimed for the near future. And there is even some question as to whether some of our recent demographic analyses have been

–  –  –

As with so much in our contemporary world, there is great volatility and uncertainty in projections of future life expectancies.

When one hears about the possibility of extreme increases in longevity, an immediate thought is often that populations—national or global—will thereby increase without bound, stretching resources to the limit and creating general discomfort, or worse. Indeed, this is a possibility— but it certainly need not be inevitable. A very simple (and highly simplified) mathematical demonstration shows this. Let P(t ) be the population at time t, let b be the birth or fertility rate per time period, and let d be the death or mortality rate per time period. Then the expected population level one time-period in the future can be expressed as

–  –  –

which depends upon the relationship between b and d. In particular, if the birth and death rates are not very different, the population won’t increase significantly and may even decrease. This demonstrates what we know intuitively: Population growth is significantly a function of the

–  –  –

Of course, the above model is meant to be merely demonstrative; it is extremely simplistic, and ignores obvious issues such as fertility and mortality rates changing over time and changes over time in the demographics of the total population (young versus fertile versus old). But the same general result holds when greater detail is considered. For example, in one recent paper several longevity scenarios were projected using a model along the lines of that employed by the World Bank.

–  –  –

Interestingly, this somewhat counter-intuitive result has important implications for another issue in demographics, namely the lower-than-replacement-level birth rates in many countries.

–  –  –

Given that increases in lifespan, to whatever degree, are a current and continuing reality, we can now consider some of the implications from such increases. Some consequences of longer human lifespans are obvious, at least at a superficial level. Other implications are very unclear 7

and debatable. The next three sections speculate on three broad types of implications:

economic, personal and ethical. Given the complexity of human societies, it is often the case that extreme consequences (either positive or negative) can result from a largely unpredictable chain or combination of causes. Actuarial science, as one of the most interdisciplinary of subjects, must consider numerous effects and their interrelationships if it wishes to accurately project the value and impact of future contingencies related to expected lifetimes.

III. Economic and Financial Implications of Increased Longevity Much of the discussion of the impact of increased longevity has involved the effects on pensions and retirement funding. This is appropriate: The most direct consequence of longer lifespans is the potential drain on funds collected presuming retirement years would on average be shorter than they will turn out to be.

In this section, we explore not only this issue (briefly), but other possible economic and financial implications that may stem from recent and future increases in human longevity.

Murphy and Topel (2005) address the broad economic implications and importance of increases in longevity.

–  –  –

A. Pensions and Retirement How will increased longevity impact the financial condition of pension plans? Indeed, how will the entire structure of retirement—age and length of retirement, activities during retirement—be affected?



Pages:   || 2 | 3 |


Similar works:

«Case 1:11-cr-00138-JEB Document 6 Filed 05/24/11 Page 1 of 20 UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ) ) Plaintiff, ) ) v. ) Crim. No. 11-CR-138 (JEB) ) IVAN NITSCHKE, ) ) Defendant. ) ) DEFENDANT=S MOTION TO DISMISS COUNT ONE OF THE INDICTMENT Mr. Ivan Nitschke, the defendant, through undersigned counsel, and pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 12(b)(2), respectfully submits this Motion to Dismiss Count One of the Indictment, which...»

«2011-10 Town of Clarence Zoning Board of Appeals Minutes Tuesday March 8, 2011 7:00 p.m. Chairman Arthur Henning called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m.Zoning Board of Appeals members present: Chairman Arthur Henning Vice-Chairman Daniel Michnik Ryan Mills David D’Amato Robert Geiger Patricia Burkard Town Officials present: Director of Community Development James Callahan Town Attorney Steven Bengart Councilman Bernard Kolber Other interested parties present: Anthony Agostino Jamie Allen...»

«ARTICLES SUBURBAN SOCIO-SPATIAL POLARISATION AND HOUSE PRICE CHANGE IN MELBOURNE: 1986 – 1996 Margaret Reynolds, Research Fellow, School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University Correspondence to Margaret Reynolds: Margaret.Reynolds@arts.monash.edu.au Associate Professor Maryann Wulff, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University Correspondence to Maryann Wulff: Maryann.Wulff@arts.monash.edu.au This study examines the process and pattern of spatial...»

«Good Country People By Flannery O’Connor Besides the neutral expression that she wore when she was alone, Mrs. Freeman had two others, forward and reverse, that she used for all her human dealings. Her forward expression was steady and driving like the advance of a heavy truck. Her eyes never swerved to left or right but turned as the story turned as if they followed a yellow line down the center of it. She seldom used the other expression because it was not often necessary for her to retract...»

«INTERPEçLLANZA La signora Francesca Machado-Zorrilla unitamente a due cofirmatari, presenta la seguente interpellanza: PREMESSA I tempi cambiano, si affacciano le giovani generazioni e cambiano anche le abitudini. Trenta o quaranta anni fa i giovani della regione e molti turisti si svagavano in discoteca. Ancor oggi ci si ricorda dell’ Ascona by night e delle sue mitiche discoteche come il Cincillà, l’Ascona Club, il Lago, Le Stelle. A Locarno c’era il Florida, ma si ballava anche alla...»

«BILLY EMERSON One of America’s greatest minstrel entertainers, Billy Emerson toured Australia three times during his career and made a significant impact on the local industry – particularly during his 1873/74 and 1885/86 visits. He made his professional variety stage debut in 1857 as a child and later worked with several well-known companies on tours throughout the USA before establishing his own troupe in San Francisco. Emerson’s 1885 tour of Australia was perhaps the most significant...»

«THE AUSTIN MIDDLE SCHOOL MAGAZINE E! RTIM ME SUM Spring 2015 Photo by Margaret Raymond Susannah List The Austin Middle School Magazine Spring 2015 SUMMERTIME! Featuring samples of creative writing, poetry, and artwork from Austin’s middle school students.With Contributions From: Stanley Alger Alexander KoMaggie Pelletier Alexia Andrikopoulos marynskyj Maggie Peterson John Brzezenski Jon Kouyoumjian Max Pineo Samantha Duff Emily Kuter Luke Poirier Dylan Cann Nicole Letourneau Margaret Raymond...»

«Version: 21 October 2014 Compiled by Laurence Hay Notes on the Children of Joseph Baker and Harriet née Brooker Albert, 24 February 1863, Maidstone, Kent, England Ellen Eliza, 15 March 1868, Linton, Kent, England William George, 10 October 1869, Linton Louisa Florence, 23 October 1871, Linton Fanny, 21 July 1873, Linton Martha, 12 February 1876, Oamaru, Otago, NZ *Edith, 21 March 1878, Oamaru *Grandmother of Daphne, Laurence, Glenys and Lynette Hay Albert Baker Joseph and Harriet Baker’s...»

«Keynote Address to Diocese of Southern Ohio 8 November 2013 The Rev. Susanne Watson Epting It’s good to be with you. It’s especially good to reconnect here with colleagues from church-wide education projects, to see fellow deacons with whom I’ve met at our deacons’ Association events, and to see members of the Community of the Transfiguration with whom I’ve worked and prayed. Most of all it’s good to be in a place that says to God together, “To serve you is perfect freedom.” A...»

«Søren Brier Levels of Cybersemiotics: Possible ontologies of signification In this article, it is argued that, in the making of a transdisciplinary theory of signification and communication for living, human, social and technological systems, C. S. Peirce’s semiotics is the only one that deals systematically in an evolutionary perspective with non-conscious intentional signs of the body as well as with language. Thus – in competition with the information processing paradigm of cognitive...»

«Copyright 2003 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. This paper was published in Proceedings of the SPIE, Instrument Design and Performance for Optical/Infrared Ground-based Telescopes, eds. M. Iye and A.F.M. Moorwood, Volume 4841, pp. 1548-1561 (2003), and is made available as an electronic reprint with permission of SPIE. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other...»

«The RSIS Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed in this publication are entirely those of the author(s), and do not represent the official position of RSIS. This publication may be reproduced electronically or in print with prior written permission obtained from RSIS and due credit given to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg for further editorial queries. NO. 290 CONSTRUCTING...»





 
<<  HOME   |    CONTACTS
2016 www.dissertation.xlibx.info - Dissertations, online materials

Materials of this site are available for review, all rights belong to their respective owners.
If you do not agree with the fact that your material is placed on this site, please, email us, we will within 1-2 business days delete him.