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«AUGUST 2013 This report is being disseminated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). As such, this document was prepared in compliance with Section ...»

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2012 WIND

TECHNOLOGIES

MARKET REPORT

AUGUST 2013

This report is being disseminated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). As such, this document was

prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for

fiscal year 2001 (public law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by DOE. Though this report

does not constitute “influential” information, as that term is defined in DOE’s information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budget’s Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review, the study was reviewed both internally and externally prior to publication. For purposes of external review, the study benefited from the advice and comments of five wind industry and trade association representatives, seven consultants, three federal laboratory staff, and one U.S. Government employee.

NOTICE

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.

Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof.

Available electronically at osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy

and its contractors, in paper, from:

U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: reports@adonis.osti.gov

Available for sale to the public, in paper, from:

U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: orders@ntis.fedworld.gov online ordering: ntis.gov/ord

–  –  –

Table of Contents Acknowledgments

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

2. Installation Trends

3. Industry Trends

4. Cost Trends

5. Performance Trends

6. Wind Power Price Trends

7. Policy and Market Drivers

8. Future Outlook

Appendix: Sources of Data Presented in this Report

References

Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series, the authors thank the entire U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind & Water Power Technology Office team and, in particular, Patrick Gilman, Cash Fitzpatrick, Mark Higgins, and Rich Tusing. For reviewing elements of this report or providing key input, we also acknowledge: Eric Lantz and Ted James (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL); Liz Salerno, Emily Williams, and Michael Goggin (American Wind Energy Association, AWEA); Cash Fitzpatrick, Liz Hartman, and Larry Mansueti (DOE); Alice Orrell (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Andrew David (U.S. International Trade Commission); Matthew Kaplan (IHS-EER); Charlie Smith (UVIG); Ed DeMeo (Renewable Energy Consulting Services); Ed Weston (GLWN); and Matthew McCabe (Clear Wind). We greatly appreciate AWEA for the use of their comprehensive database of wind power projects. We also thank Amy Grace (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) for the use of Bloomberg NEF’s graphic on domestic wind turbine nacelle assembly capacity; Charlie Bloch, Terese Decker, and Bruce Hamilton (Navigant Consulting) for assistance with the section on offshore wind; Donna Heimiller and Billy Roberts (NREL) for assistance with the wind project and wind manufacturing maps as well as for assistance in mapping wind resource quality; Kathleen O’Dell (NREL) for assistance with layout, formatting, and production; and Jarett Zuboy (consultant) for editorial assistance. Berkeley Lab’s contributions to this report were funded by the Wind & Water Power Technology Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the U.S.

Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein.

–  –  –

iii 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report Executive Summary Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States achieved record levels in 2012, motivated by the then-planned expiration of federal tax incentives at the end of 2012 and recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technology. At the same time, even with a short-term extension of federal tax incentives now in place, the U.S. wind power industry is facing uncertain times. It will take time to rebuild the project pipeline, ensuring a slow year for new capacity additions in 2013. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on industry growth expectations. In combination with global competition within the sector, these trends continue to impact the manufacturing supply chain. What these trends mean for the medium to longer term remains to be seen, dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions, although recent declines in the price of wind energy have boosted the prospects for future growth.





Key findings from this year’s Wind Technologies Market Report include:

Wind Power Additions Hit a New Record in 2012, with 13.1 GW of New Capacity • Added in the United States and $25 Billion Invested. Wind power installations in 2012 were more than 90% higher than in 2011 and 30% greater than the previous record in 2009.

Cumulative wind power capacity grew by 28% in 2012, bringing the total to 60 GW.

Wind Power Represented the Largest Source of U.S. Electric-Generating Capacity • Additions in 2012. Wind power constituted 43% of all nameplate capacity additions in 2012, overtaking natural gas-fired generation as the leading source of new capacity. This follows the 5 previous years in which wind power represented between 25% and 43% of new U.S.

electric generation capacity in each year.

The United States Narrowly Regained the Lead in Annual Wind Power Capacity • Additions in 2012 but Was Well Behind the Market Leaders in Wind Energy Penetration. After leading the world in annual wind power additions from 2005 through 2008, and then losing the mantle to China from 2009 through 2011, the U.S. narrowly regained the global lead in 2012. The U.S. market represented roughly 29% of global installed capacity in 2012, a steep rise from the 16% registered in 2011. In terms of cumulative capacity, the U.S. remained the second leading market. A number of countries are beginning to achieve high levels of wind energy penetration: end-of-2012 installed wind power is estimated to supply the equivalent of nearly 30% of Denmark’s electricity demand, compared to approximately 18% for Portugal and Spain, 16% for Ireland, and 10% for Germany. In the United States, the cumulative wind power capacity installed at the end of 2012 is estimated, in an average year, to equate to roughly 4.4% of electricity demand.

Texas Added More New Wind Power Capacity than Any Other State, while Nine States • Exceed 12% Wind Energy Penetration. With 1,826 MW installed in 2012, Texas edged out California to reclaim its lead in adding the most new wind capacity. Other leading states in terms of new capacity (each with more than 1,000 MW) included California, Kansas, and Oklahoma. On a cumulative basis, Texas remained the clear leader. Notably, the wind power capacity installed in Iowa, South Dakota, and Kansas as of the end of 2012 is estimated, in an average year, to supply approximately 25%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, of all in-state iv 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report electricity generation. As of the end of 2012, a total of nine states had enough wind capacity installed to supply more than 12% of all in-state electricity generation in an average year.

No Commercial Offshore Turbines Have Been Commissioned in the United States, but • Offshore Project and Policy Developments Continued in 2012. At the end of 2012, global cumulative offshore wind capacity stood at roughly 5,117 MW, with Europe being the primary locus of activity. No commercial offshore projects have been installed in the United States, and the emergence of a U.S. market faces both challenges and opportunities.

Significant strides continued to be made in the federal arena in 2012, both through the U.S.

Department of the Interior’s responsibilities with regards to regulatory approvals and the U.S.

Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) investments in offshore wind energy research and development (which includes funding seven advanced demonstration project partnerships).

Interest exists in developing offshore wind energy in several parts of the country; for example, Navigant Consulting finds that eight projects totaling 2,380 MW are somewhat more advanced in the development process. Of these, two have signed power purchase agreements (PPAs), and the extension of federal tax incentives in early 2013 may motivate both projects to commence construction by the end of 2013.

Data from Interconnection Queues Demonstrate that an Enormous Amount of Wind • Power Capacity Is Under Consideration but that Relative Interest in Wind May Be Declining. At the end of 2012, there were 125 GW of wind power capacity within the transmission interconnection queues administered by independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and utilities reviewed for this report. More than 95% of this capacity is planned for Texas, the Northwest, Southwest Power Pool, PJM Interconnection, the Midwest, the Mountain region, and California. Wind power represented 37% of all generating capacity within these queues at the end of 2012 and was slightly lower than the 130 GW of natural gas in the queues. In 2012, 20 GW of gross wind power capacity entered the interconnection queues, compared to 55 GW of natural gas and 10 GW of solar. Of note is that the absolute amount of wind, coal, and nuclear power in the sampled interconnection queues (considering gross additions and project drop-outs) has generally declined in recent years, whereas natural gas and solar capacity has increased.

The “Big Three” Turbine Suppliers Captured more than 70% of the U.S. Market in • 2012, yet Diversification Continues. GE Wind led the U.S. market with more than 5 GW of wind turbines newly installed in 2012, for a 38% market share. Following GE Wind were Siemens (with a 20% market share), Vestas (14%), and Gamesa (10%). There has been a notable increase in the number of wind turbine manufacturers serving the U.S. market; the number installing more than 1 MW increased from just five in 2005 to 25 in 2012. The “big three” turbine suppliers—GE Wind, Vestas, and Siemens—have, however, actually gained market share since 2008/2009. Globally, U.S.-owned GE ascended to an effective tie with Vestas as the top supplier of turbines worldwide in 2012. Chinese turbine manufacturers also continue to occupy positions of prominence in the global ratings, although none of these suppliers made the top five in 2012. To date, their growth has been based almost entirely on sales to the Chinese market. However, 2012 U.S. installations by Chinese and South Korean manufacturers included those from Goldwind, China Creative Wind Energy, Guodian United Power, Sinovel, Hyundai, HZ Windpower, and Sany Electric.

The Manufacturing Supply Chain Responded to a Record Year in Wind Power • Capacity Additions, but with Substantial Growing Pains. Wind turbine and component manufacturers met the challenge of supplying a 13-GW market in 2012. Seven of the 10 v 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report turbine suppliers with the largest share of the U.S. market in 2012 had one or more operational manufacturing facility in the United States in 2012. In contrast, only 8 years earlier, there was only one active utility-scale turbine manufacturer assembling nacelles in the United States (GE). Despite this significant growth in the domestic supply chain, reduced near-term demand expectations led to a difficult business environment in 2012. Not only did a smaller number of new turbine and component manufacturing facilities open in 2012 than in 2011, but also a number of facilities closed (including the manufacturing facilities of Clipper and Nordic). Even with these adjustments, near-term forecasts for wind power additions in the United States suggest that the market will have an over-capacity of nacelle assembly capability in the short term. The American Wind Energy Association estimates that the entire wind energy sector directly and indirectly employed 80,700 full-time workers in the United States at the end of 2012. Although this is 5,700 more jobs than reported in 2011, wind industry manufacturing jobs saw an overall decrease from 30,000 jobs in 2011 to 25,500 in 2012 due to the severe decline in new orders towards the end of 2012.

Manufacturers have now begun receiving orders for 2013 and 2014 delivery, but it is not yet clear to what degree these orders will lead to a recovery of the manufacturing sector in 2013.

Despite Challenges, a Growing Percentage of the Equipment Used in U.S. Wind Power • Projects Has Been Sourced Domestically in Recent Years. U.S. trade data show that the United States remained a large importer of wind power equipment in 2012 but that growth in installed wind power capacity has outpaced the growth in imports in recent years. As a result, a growing percentage of the equipment (in dollar-value terms) used in wind power projects has been sourced domestically. Focusing on selected trade categories, and when presented as a fraction of total equipment-related wind turbine costs, the overall import fraction is estimated to have declined considerably, from 75% in 2006–2007 to 28% in 2012.



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