«DEVELOPMENT FUTURES IN KENYA AND TANZANIA BEYOND 2015 FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE FFRC eBOOK 1/2015 The research for this book has been carried ...»
Jyrki Luukkanen, Peter Kuria, Mira Käkönen,
Kamilla Karhunmaa, Joni Karjalainen, Rasna
Warah, Colman Msoka and Kaisa Toroskainen
IN KENYA AND TANZANIA
FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE
FFRC eBOOK 1/2015
The research for this book has been carried out under the BEYOND 2015 project (Kenya and Tanzania
Beyond 2015: Exploring domestic debates and envisioning development futures), a commissioned re- search funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland. All views presented in the text are those by the Research Centre and its team, and do not represent the views of the Ministry.
Contributors to this book (in alphabetical order):
Kamilla Karhunmaa Joni Karjalainen Peter Kuria Mira Käkönen Jyrki Luukkanen Lotta Maijala Colman Msoka Noora Stenholm Kaisa Toroskainen Rasna Warah
Jyrki Luukkanen, D.Tech, Research Director, Adjunct Professor Finland Futures Research Centre (Tampere office) Turku School of Economics, University of Turku Yliopistonkatu 58 D, 33100 Tampere, Finland E-mail: email@example.com Phone: +358 50 337 0710 Copyright © 2015 Writers & Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku Cover photo © Mira Käkönen ISBN 978-952-249-304-0 ISSN 1797-1322
FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRETurku School of Economics FI-20014 University of Turku Turku: Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI-20500 Turku Helsinki: Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, FI-00130 Helsinki Tampere: Yliopistonkatu 58 D, FI-33100 Tampere Tel. +358 2 333 9530 utu.fi/ffrc firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com 2
CONTENTSLIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
1.1. Background and motivation
1.2. Objectives and scope
1.3. Methods and materials
1.4. Structure of the book
2. THE INTERNATIONAL DEBATE ON MDGS, SDGS AND EMERGING TENSIONS
2.1. Negotiating and implementing the MDGs
2.2. Post-2015 Processes: Sustainable Development Goals and Emerging Tensions
2.3. African positioning and the emerging voices from within
3. MDG RELEVANCE AND POST-2015 DEBATES IN TANZANIA
3.1. Tanzanian development policies in the context of MDGs
3.2. MDG performance in Tanzania
3.3. Reflections on the MDG relevance in Tanzania
3.4. Outcomes and concerns of post-2015 consultations in Tanzania
4. SHIFTING ALLIANCES: THE EVOLUTION OF DONOR GOVERNMENT RELATIONS IN KENYA
4.1. Donor-state relations during the Moi era (1980–2002)
4.2. “Looking East”: Shifting alliances during Kibaki’s first term (2003–2007)
4.3. Renewed engagement (2008–2012)
5. EXPERIENCES WITH MDGS AND DOMESTIC DEBATES AROUND POST-2015 IN KENYA..... 61
5.1. MDGs in the context of Kenya’s national policies
5.2. Influence and challenges of mainstreaming MDGs to national policies
5.3. MDG performance in Kenya
5.4. Resourcing the MDGs in Kenya
5.5. Post-2015 consultations in Kenya
6. VIEWS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR RESOURCING POVERTY REDUCTION IN KENYAAND TANZANIA: ROLE OF DOMESTIC RESOURCE MOBILISATION AND ODA?
6.1. The context of post-2015 negotiations
6.2. Emerging African and East-African dynamics
6.3. Kenya: Mega-infrastructure projects amidst high income inequality
6.4. Tanzania: Challenges for the achievement of economic transformation
7. SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND ENERGY ISSUES INTHE POST-2015 FRAMEWORK
7.1. Kenya and Tanzania: Emerging countries in a globally structured extractive industry...........105
7.2. Political, legal and social accountability towards citizens
7.3. Challenges of spill-over effects and employment
7.4. Renewable energy against natural gas, oil and coal
9. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMSACORD Agency for Cooperation and Research in Development AfDB African Development Bank AU African Union BRN Big Results Now (in Tanzania) CBDR Common but differentiated responsibilities CSD Commission on Sustainable Development CSR Corporate social responsibility EAC East African Community ECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative FYDP Five-Year Development Plan (in Tanzania) HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries HLPF High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development ICC International Criminal Court MDG Millennium Development Goals MDG+ Millennium Development Goals Plus MIC Middle income country MTPs 5-Year Medium-term Plans (in Kenya) NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (known more commonly in Tanzania as Mkukuta) NEPAD New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development ODA Official development assistance PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SAP Structural Adjustment Programme SCP Sustainable consumption and production SDGs Sustainable Development Goals TDV 2025 Tanzania Development Vision 2025 UN CSD United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) UNGC United Nations Global Compact UN HLP United Nations High-level Panel on Post-2015 Development Agenda UNSG United Nations Secretary-General WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development
On the road towards the post-2015 development framework, the “Development Futures in Kenya and Tanzania Beyond 2015” book presents views from Kenya and Tanzania to complement the post-2015 debate that thus far has taken place mostly at the international policy circles. The book is based on over fifty interviews in Kenya, Tanzania and Finland and ten workshops carried out in the first half of 2013. The research has been commissioned by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. All views presented in the text are those of the research team and do not represent the views of the Ministry. Finland Futures Research Centre is continuing the research themes of sustainable energy and alternative development futures in the NEOCARBON ENERGY project (www.neocarbonenergy.fi).
MDGs, SDGs and African post-2015 expectations The discussion around the post-2015 international development framework emerges from two tracks: the expiration of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which are a result of the UN Millennium Declaration in 2000; as well as the initiative of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with emphasis on a holistic approach to environment and development. In September 2013, the UN General Assembly decided to continue negotiations on a post-2015 development agenda through a ‘one-track’ approach, where the MDGs and SDGs would be merged.
The MDG experience has shaped the expectations of countries about ‘development cooperation’. The MDGs have focused on human development and social service delivery, and endorsed the principles of results-based management to monitor aid outcomes and achieve better aid effectiveness with quantitative targets and indicators. Over the years, the MDGs have received both praise and criticism. There have been high expectations and optimism on the ability of the MDGs to deliver poverty reduction, appreciating their value in public and political mobilization. A profound critique has been that the MDGs left untouched the systemic causes of poverty, including the impoverishing structures of the global economy, the drivers of inequality, the dynamics of global wealth accumulation as well as the main drivers of ecological damage in many forms.
Another key driver of the post-MDG discussion is the concern related to environmental sustainability.
An important policy response to this has been the suggestion to address sustainability issues through a set of universal SDGs. The merging of the MDGs and SDGs raises several questions with regards to rights, responsibilities, and capacities related to North-South relations. Many Southern countries have raised concerns on how the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be interpreted in the postcontext and whether a new framework would undermine “the right to develop” of the poorer nations.
Especially amongst LDCs there are concerns that the SDGs could divert the already declining resources from the more ‘traditional’ targets of ODA, such as healthcare and education.
In the post-2015 debates, the emerging positions of African countries, as reflected for example in the African Union reports, highlight the importance of Africa’s own strategic visions and African countries setting their own priorities that international frameworks should respect. There has also been a clear emphasis on putting economic growth and industrialisation back on the international agenda. The focus is not only on growth, but also on economic transformation that would benefit the whole society with jobs, greater local value addition and retention, agricultural development and access to markets, and better infrastructure.
In practice, however, the measures taken by governments have focused on major infrastructure projects.
African civil society groups worry that this way future development is not becoming more inclusive, equitable and sustainable. Concerns have been raised over governments not paying sufficient attention on how to ensure that people are not deprived of their livelihoods and that inequalities will not deepen. Another important discussion point for the post-2015 negotiations raised by both governments and civil society in Africa is the need of tackling illicit financial flows.
Tanzania: A preference for a MDG+ agenda Many aspects of the MDGs were relatively effortlessly integrated into Tanzanian development policies. Both the issue-focus of MDGs (socio-economic development) and their approach (outcome-based management) were already present in Tanzanian development policies. Tanzania has long been viewed as a forerunner in international development policy processes; it also became the first country to produce a MDG Country Report in 2001.
The MDGs have been especially prominent in Tanzania’s National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty I and II (known as MKUKUTA I and II), with performance-based indicators for key targets set in the development policy. Also the Tanzanian Development Vision 2025 focuses on human development and macroeconomic indicators.
However, the more recent development plans, the Five Year Development Plan (2010) and Big Results Now (2013), have focused more on the productive sectors of the economy. Compared to earlier development policies where the influence of donors was strong, these policies have been viewed as more Tanzanian.
They also indicate Tanzania’s increasing interest to partner with non-traditional donors. For example the Big Results Now initiative is based on the Malaysian growth model. However, as the MDG-influenced plans are also still operational, the influx of overlapping policy approaches creates confusion at the expense of prioritization.
The MDG performance of Tanzania is mixed and raises several different concerns. As it stands, Tanzania is expected to achieve two of the MDGs on time: MDG 2 (primary education) and MDG 6 (HIV/AIDS, malaria and other major diseases). Tanzania will likely meet some of the sub-goals on MDGs 3 (gender equality), 4 (child mortality) and 7 (environmental sustainability). However, Tanzania will not meet MDG 1 (hunger and poverty eradication) or MDG 5 (maternal mortality). Despite successes in for example enrolment in free primary education, the MDGs have created an overt focus on quantitative targets. The MDG experience in Tanzania suggests that the post-2015 framework should look at the qualitative side of development.
Tanzania was amongst the first countries to initiate national post-2015 consultations, which took place during the first half of 2013. The results were synthesized in a National Report that presents ten goals for Tanzania to consider in a post-2015 framework. A majority of these goals are similar to the ones outlined by the MDGs. Also some new issues, such as governance, peace, security and sustainable development, are 7 raised. The focus on social issues such as health and education was still seen as relevant in Tanzania. This suggests that Tanzania is likely to prefer an “MDG+” type of approach to the post-2015 framework. The question of merging the SDGs with the MDGs was viewed critically. The fact that the MDGs have not yet been achieved has been emphasised. The post-2015 consultations have been criticized for lack of follow-up on the formulation of Tanzania’s national position, especially by the civil society actors. Whereas the new constitution, due in 2014, has been prominently discussed in Tanzania, the post-2015 consultations have not raised significant public debate.
Kenya: Challenges in the mainstreaming of MDGs and ambitious economic visions The Kenyan government’s relationship with the donor community has undergone several incarnations during the last thirty years: from non-cooperation to grudging accommodating to deliberate re-alignment. Socio-economic issues such as education and healthcare have featured in Kenya’s national development agenda since the country’s independence in 1963. In this sense, the MDGs do not present a break from previous policies. However, the structural adjustment policies in the 1980s and 1990s resulted in cuts in social sector spending. The introduction of MDGs coincided with the beginning of Mwai Kibaki’s presidency that launched progressive reforms, including free primary education.