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«Enhancing climate change mitigation ambition after Paris Messages from economic literature Hanna-Liisa Kangas, Kimmo Ollikka and Sally Weaver ...»

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REPORT S OF T H E F I N N I S H EN V I RON MEN T

INSTITUTE 17 | 2016

Enhancing climate change

mitigation ambition after Paris

Messages from economic literature

Hanna-Liisa Kangas, Kimmo Ollikka and Sally Weaver

CYCLICAL MARKET TECHNOLOGY LOW CARBON

IMPROVEMENTS MECHANISMS COOPERATION INVESTMENTS

AND INFORMATION AND FINANCE

SHARING

F in n ish Enviro n m e n t I n s titu te

RE PORT S OF T HE FIN N IS H EN V IRO N MEN T

INSTITUTE 17 | 2 0 1 6 Enhancing climate change mitigation ambition after Paris Messages from economic literature Hanna-Liisa Kangas, Kimmo Ollikka and Sally Weaver Helsinki 2016

FIN N ISH ENV IRON MEN T IN ST IT U T E

REPORTS OF THE FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE 17 | 2016 Finnish Environment Institute Climate change mitigation and adaptation Title of publication: Enhancing climate change mitigation ambition after Paris - Messages from economic literature Authors: Hanna-Liisa Kangas1, Kimmo Ollikka2 and Sally Weaver3 Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, 2)VATT Institute for Economic Research 1) University of Helsinki 3) Publisher: Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) P.O. Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland, Phone +358 295 251 000, syke.fi Financier of publication: Ministry of the Environment P.O. Box 35, FI-00023, Finnish Government, Finland, Phone +358 295 250 000, ym.fi Layout: Pirjo Lehtovaara Cover photo: Erika Várkonyi Year of issue: 2016 Publication is available only in the Internet: www.syke.fi/julkaisut | helda.helsinki.fi/syke ISBN 978-952-11-4567-4 (PDF) ISSN 1796-1726 (online)

AB STRACT

Enhancing climate change mitigation ambition after Paris - Messages from economic literature The Paris Agreement starts a new era in global climate policy. The agreement includes a landmark target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C degrees. Since the initial contributions of the Parties do not fulfill that target, additional ways and mechanisms to increase climate change mitigation ambition are required. Increased cooperation and decreased costs of mitigation that result from enhanced policy can help to achieve the current contributions and also increase the ambition of future targets.

The objective of this report is to bridge the realities of the UNFCCC negotiations and theoretical academic understanding of increasing the climate change mitigation ambition. Especially we focus on the fields of environmental economics and international environmental agreements.

We have analyzed the possibilities which the Paris Agreement opens up for increasing the ambition of climate change mitigation in the form of (1) cyclical improvements, (2) market mechanisms, (3) technology transfer and information sharing, and (4) low-carbon investments and finance to increase the ambition of climatemitigation.

We find that the implementation of the Paris Agreement requires increased multilevel cooperation between Parties. Also, the Parties’ climate change mitigation targets and actions should be clearly formulated and comparable. In order for the global ambition enhancements to be measurable, a trustworthy review process is necessary. In addition, new international market and non-market mechanisms are needed.

We also find that for their role to be optimal, UNFCCC’s key means of implementation require strengthening. The Green Climate Fund could play an active role in enhancing the maturity and market growth of low-carbon investment instruments. The Climate Technology Centre and Network could help to advance the Parties’ technology cooperation as well as technology transfer to developing countries.

The Paris Agreement itself is a significant step towards more ambitious global climate policy. However, the implementation of the agreement will define how well its objectives are met. Upcoming negotiations can help to shape future climate policy design towards a positive cycle of increasing climate change mitigation ambition.

Keywords: climate policy, UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, international environmental agreements, climate change mitigation, market mechanisms, technology transfer, information sharing, climate finance T IIV IST EL M Ä Ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän kunnianhimon tason nosto Pariisin jälkeen – Viestejä taloustieteellisestä kirjallisuudesta Pariisin ilmastosopimus aloittaa ilmastopolitiikan uuden aikakauden. Sopimus sisältää merkittävän tavoitteen rajoittaa ilmaston lämpeneminen huomattavasti alle kahteen asteeseen esiteolliseen aikaan verrattuna. Koska maiden antamat alustavat ilmastopanokset eivät riitä täyttämään tavoitetta, tarvitaan uusia politiikkatoimia nostamaan kunnianhimon tasoa. Onnistuessaan uudet politiikkatoimet lisäävät maiden välistä yhteistyötä ja alentavat ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän kustannuksia.

Tämä auttaa maita saavuttamaan nykytavoitteensa sekä nostamaan tulevien tavoitteidensa kunnianhimoa.

Tämän raportin tavoitteena on tarkastella ilmastoneuvotteluiden todellisuuden ja akateemisen tutkimustiedon välisiä yhteyksiä kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla.

Keskitymme erityisesti ympäristötaloustieteen ja kansainvälisten ympäristösopimusten kirjallisuuteen.





Olemme analysoineet Pariisin sopimuksen avaamia mahdollisuuksia nostaa ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän kunnianhimon tasoa (1) syklisten parannusten, (2) markkinamekanismien, (3) teknologiansiirron ja tiedonjakamisen sekä (4) vähähiilisten investointien ja rahoituksen näkökulmasta.

Kirjallisuuskatsauksemme perusteella Pariisin sopimuksen onnistunut toimeenpano vaatii maiden välisen yhteistyön tiivistämistä eri tasoilla. Lisäksi maiden päästövähennystavoitteet ja -toimenpiteet tulisi muotoilla selkeästi ja vertailukelpoisella tavalla. Arviointiprosessin on oltava luotettava, jotta ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän kunnianhimon tasoa voidaan tarkastella. Lisäksi tarvitaan uusia kansainvälisiä markkina- ja muita mekanismeja.

Tärkeimpien ilmastosopimusta toimeenpanevien YK:n ilmastokonventin toimielinten toimintamahdollisuuksia olisi vahvistettava. Vihreän ilmastorahaston tulisi ottaa aktiivinen rooli vähähiilisten investointien rahoitusinstrumenttien kehittämisessä ja markkinoiden kasvattamisessa. Teknologiakeskus voisi puolestaan auttaa voimakkaammin maiden teknologiayhteistyön tiivistämisessä ja teknologiansiirrossa kehitysmaihin.

Pariisin sopimus on jo itsessään merkittävä askel kohti kunnianhimoisempaa ilmastopolitiikkaa. Sopimuksen toimeenpano määrittää kuitenkin sen, kuinka hyvin tavoitteet toteutuvat käytännössä. Tulevien vuosien neuvottelut voivat onnistuessaan viedä ilmastopolitiikkaa kohti positiivista kunnianhimontason noston kierrettä.

Asiasanat: ilmastopolitiikka, YK:n ilmastokonventti, Pariisin ilmastosopimus, kansainväliset ympäristösopimukset, ilmastonmuutoksen hillintä, markkinamekanismit, teknologiansiirto, tiedonjakaminen, ilmastorahoitus 4 Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 17 | 2016 SAMMAN DRAG Att höja ambitionsnivån i stävjandet av klimatförändringen efter Paris – Signaler från den ekonomiska litteraturen Parisavtalet är begynnelsen på en ny era i global miljöpolitik. I avtalet ingår en epokgörande målsättning att begränsa den globala uppvärmningen till ett värde som ligger väl under 2 grader. Då utgångspunkten för parternas insatser inte når upp till det målet krävs ytterligare tillvägagångsätt och mekanismer för att nå upp till ambitionsnivån för att stävja klimatförändringen. Förbättrade politiska åtgärder kan öka samarbete och sänka kostnader i strävan efter att hämma klimatförändringen, detta främjar att de aktuella målen nås och kan även vara en ambitionshöjande faktor för framtida målsättningar.

Syftet med denna rapport är att granska förhållandet mellan realiteterna i klimatförhandlingarna och den teoretiska akademiska förståelsen kring begränsande klimatförändringen. Vi lägger speciell tonvikt vid litteratur på området miljöekonomi och internationella miljöavtal. Vi har analyserat på vilka punkter Parisavtalet möjliggör en höjd ambitionsnivå i form av (1) cykliska förbättringar, (2) marknadsmekanismer, (3) Tekniköverföring och informationsutbyte samt (4) investeringar i och finansiering av alternativ med låga koldioxidutsläpp.

Vi kommer till slutsatsen att verkställandet av Parisavtalet kräver att länderna ökar samarbetet på olika nivåer. Dessutom bör insatserna och målsättningarna vara tydligt formulerade och jämförbara. För att den globala ambitionsnivåns förhöjning skall vara mätbar krävs också en tillförlitlig utvärderingsprocess. Även nya internationella mekanismer, på och utanför marknaden, är nödvändiga.

Vi hävdar också att för att nå en optimal ställning så bör klimatskonventionens medel för att iståndsätta klimatavtalet stärkas. Den Gröna klimatfonden har en nyckelställning och kan bidra till att utveckla finansiella instrumenten för, och marknadstillväxt av, koldioxidsnåla alternativ. Climate Tecnology Centre and Network kan bidra till att stärka parternas teknologisamarbete såväl som tekniköverföring till utvecklingsländerna.

Parisavtalet är i sig självt ett betydande steg mot en mer ambitiös klimatpolitik.

Trots kommer verkställandet av avtalet att bli avgörande för hur väl målsättningarna slutligen uppnås. Kommande förhandlingar kan bli danande för en klimatpolitik som styrs in i en god spiral av allt ambitiösare klimatmål.

Nyckelord: klimatpolitik, FN:s klimatkonvention, Parisavtalet, internationella miljöavtal, begränsning av klimatförändringen, marknadsmekanismer, tekniköverföring, informationsutbyte, klimatfinansiering

–  –  –

6 Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 17 | 2016

AB B RE V IAT ION S

Assigned Amount Units AAU Business-as-usual BAU Clean Development Mechanism CDM Certified Emissions Reduction CER Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the CMA Paris Agreement Conference of Parties (to the UNFCCC) COP Climate Technology Centre and Network CTCN European Economic Area EEA Emission Reduction Units ERU ETS Emissions Trading System EU Framework for various approaches FVA General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GATT Green Climate Fund GCF Gross Domestic Product GDP Greenhouse gas GHG International environmental agreement IEA International Emissions Trading IET (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (I)NDC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Intellectual Property Right IPR International Solar Alliance ISA Internationally transferred mitigation outcomes ITMO Joint Implementation JI Lima-Paris Action Agenda LPAA Measuring, reporting and verification MRV Non-state Actor Zone for Climate Action NAZCA Nationally Determined Entities NDE Non-governmental organisation NGO Non-market-based approaches NMA New Market Mechanism NMM Research and development R&D Research, development and demonstration RD&D Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RGGI Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice SBSTA Sustainable Development Mechanism SDM Technology Action Plan TAP Technology Executive Committee TEC Technology Mechanism TM Technology Needs Assessments TNA World Trade Organisation WTO United Nations Environment Programme UNEP UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Industrial Development Organisation UNIDO

7 Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 17 | 2016 CON T ENT S

Abstract

Tiivistelmä

Sammandrag

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Executive Summary for Policy Makers

1 Introduction

Paris Agreement starts a new era of climate policy

1.1

–  –  –

2 Cyclical improvements

Cooperation drives climate change mitigation

2.1

–  –  –

5 Low-carbon investments and finance

Green investment gap

5.1

–  –  –

6 Conclusions

Interviewed experts

References

8 Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 17 | 2016 Executive Summary for Policy Makers Enhancing climate change mitigation ambition after Paris - Messages from economic literature The Paris Agreement starts a new era in global climate policy. The agreement includes a landmark target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C. Parties will take voluntary action to reduce their emissions. These national contributions are the bottom-up elements of the Paris Agreement. The agreement also includes some cooperative and top-down elements, for example related to review, transparency of action and support, technology transfer and development, and rules for the use of market mechanisms.

The climate negotiation architecture of the Paris Agreement will be a cyclical pledge-and-review process. Parties submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the future every five years. The contributions will be evaluated and compared to the overall targets in global stocktaking. Realized mitigation actions will be verified before the next round of submissions. The national contributions are not legally binding in international legislation, but the Paris Agreement states that the ambition level of the subsequent national contributions cannot be weakened, only improved. The Paris Agreement also requires all Parties, for instance, to report their progress made towards achieving their targets.

Already 188 countries covering over 95 percent of global emissions have submitted their first unilateral contributions (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). The Parties’ initial contributions will unlikely reach the well below 2 °C target set out in the agreement. This is not a surprise, as noticed by Joseph Stiglitz,1

among many others:



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