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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR
9, rue de la Fédération, ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France AND DEVELOPMENT
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris autonomous body which was established in November on 14th December 1960, and which came into force 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall
implement an international energy programme. promote policies designed:
It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co- • to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth operation among twenty-six* of the OECD’s thirty and employment and a rising standard of living in member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are: member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development
• to maintain and improve systems for coping with oil of the world economy;
• to contribute to sound economic expansion in
• to promote rational energy policies in a global member as well as non-member countries in the context through co-operative relations with non- process of economic development; and member countries, industry and international organisations; • to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance
• to operate a permanent information system on the with international obligations.
international oil market;
The original member countries of the OECD are Austria,
• to improve the world’s energy supply and demand Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, structure by developing alternative energy sources Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and increasing the efficiency of energy use; Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the
World Energy Outlook 2004 appears at an extremely volatile and uncertain moment in modern energy history. Soaring oil, gas and coal prices, exploding energy demand in China, war in Iraq and electricity blackouts across the world are among the signs and causes of the profound transformations through which the energy world is passing. To this unsettling environment, WEO-2004 brings a mass of statistical information, informed projections and focused energy analysis. It does not pretend to solve the problems, but it provides the indispensable information from which solutions will eventually be crafted.
It is my very great pleasure once again to present the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication and to pay tribute to Dr. Fatih Birol and the WEO team under his direction. Acknowledgment is also due to many other members of the IEA staff who contributed to this effort, as well as to the scores of diligent “peer reviewers” from industry, government and academia who gave generously of their time and expertise.
As we say in French, “La réputation du WEO n’est plus à faire”. The publication is acknowledged worldwide as the single most important source of energy statistics, projections and analysis. The WEO-2002, as well as last year’s special World Energy Investment Outlook, received several awards for analytic excellence.
Ensuring the continuing security of energy supplies is the International Energy Agency’s core mission and raison d’être. This book documents a large and growing array of potential threats to that security, including the spectre of disruption along vulnerable pipelines and sea-lanes, and especially at a number of narrow chokepoints on the oil routes which have been dubbed the “dire straits”. The threats are all the more preoccupying in light of the WEO’s projections of oil demand, supply and trade. All the large consuming countries – now including China and India – are growing increasingly dependent on imports from an ever-smaller group of distant producer countries, some of them politically unstable. In consequence, oil markets are likely to become less flexible and prices more volatile.
Security is not the only issue this book raises. It records the continuing unacceptable contribution of the energy sector to climate-destabilising carbon dioxide emissions. It reminds the reader of the shameful fact that a billionand-a-half of the world’s poorest citizens totally lack access to electricity, and almost as many will lack it in the year 2030. It takes an in-depth look at Russia’s emergence as a major world energy supplier, but poses some probing questions about Russia’s energy future. And once again WEO draws attention to the staggering investments needed to meet rising energy demand over the Foreword 3 next quarter century – and warns that the financing may well not be forthcoming, especially in the poorest countries.
Things could, of course, improve. The worst case is not inevitable. To make this point, the WEO-2004 provides an Alternative Policy Scenario, including, for the very first time, developing as well as developed countries. This scenario demonstrates that we can indeed reduce our dependence on energy imports, cut our growing carbon emissions, burn our fuels more cleanly and efficiently.
We can do it only if we can summon the required political will.
This work is published under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA.
It does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of IEA member countries.
Claude Mandil 4 World Energy Outlook 2004
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis study was prepared by the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency in co-operation with other divisions of the IEA.
The Director of Long-Term Office, Noé van Hulst, provided guidance and encouragement during the project. The study was designed and managed by Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis Division. Other members of EAD who were responsible for bringing the study to completion include: Maria Argiri, Marco Baroni, Amos Bromhead, François Cattier, Laura Cozzi, Lisa Guarrera, Hiroyuki Kato, Trevor Morgan, Nicola Pochettino and Maria T.
Storeng. Claudia Jones provided essential support.
The IEA’s Carmen Difiglio, Fridtjof Unander, Dolf Gielen, Paul Waide, David Fyfe, Isabel Murray and Mabrouka Bouziane provided substantial contributions to this Outlook. Scott Sullivan carried editorial responsibility.
The study also benefited from input provided by other IEA colleagues, namely:
Martina Bosi, Rick Bradley, John Cameron, Viviane Consoli, Doug Cooke, Sylvie Cornot, Muriel Custodio, Ralf Dickel, Lawrence Eagles, Jason Elliot, Meredydd Evans, Lew Fulton, Rebecca Gaghen, Jean-Yves Garnier, Dagmar Graczyk, Klaus Jacoby, Pierre Lefèvre, Jeffrey Logan, Lawrence Metzroth, Cédric Philibert, Loretta Ravera, Bertrand Sadin, Rick Sellers, Ulrik Stridbaek and Mike Taylor.
The work could not have been achieved without the substantial support provided by many government bodies, international organisations and energy companies worldwide, notably the Ministry of Environment of Italy, the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy of Norway, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/Argonne National Laboratory, the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, IHS Energy Group, the Institute of Energy Economics of Japan and the World Coal Institute.
Many international experts commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed early drafts of each chapter. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.
Prominent contributors include:
Chapter 3 (Oil Market Outlook) Thomas S. Ahlbrandt U.S. Geological Survey, United States Kenneth Chew IHS Energy Group, Switzerland Joel Couse Total, France Jean-Christophe Füeg Swiss Federal Office of Energy, Switzerland Dermot Gately New York University, United States
Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France Telephone: 33 (0) 1 4057 6670 Fax: 33 (0) 1 4057 6659 Email: Fatih.Birol@iea.org TABLE OF CONTENTS THE CONTEXT
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
OIL MARKET OUTLOOK
NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
ELECTRICITY MARKET OUTLOOK
RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK
REGIONAL OUTLOOKSRUSSIA – AN IN-DEPTH STUDY
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT
WORLD ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
World Energy Outlook 1993 World Energy Outlook 1994 World Energy Outlook 1995 World Energy Outlook 1996 World Energy Outlook 1998
World Energy Outlook 1999 Insights:
Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right World Energy Outlook 2000
World Energy Outlook 2001 Insights:
Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth World Energy Outlook 2002 World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 Insights World Energy Outlook 2004
World Energy Outlook 2005 Insights (forthcoming):
Middle East Energy Outlook: Implications for Global Energy Markets 28 World Energy Outlook 2004
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEnergy Security in a Dangerous World World Energy Outlook 2004 paints a sobering picture of how the global energy system is likely to evolve from now to 2030. If governments stick with the policies in force as of mid-2004, the world’s energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, meeting most of the increase in overall energy use. The shares of nuclear power and renewable energy sources will remain limited.
The Earth’s energy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 and well beyond. Less certain is how much it will cost to extract them and deliver them to consumers. Fossil-fuel resources are, of course, finite, but we are far from exhausting them. The world is not running out of oil just yet. Most estimates of proven oil reserves are high enough to meet the cumulative world demand we project over the next three decades.
Our analysis suggests that global production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made. Proven reserves of gas and coal are even more plentiful that those of oil. There is considerable potential for discovering more of all these fuels in the future.
But serious concerns about energy security emerge from the market trends projected here. The world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase as international trade expands. Climate-destabilising carbon-dioxide emissions will continue to rise, calling into question the sustainability of the current energy system. Huge amounts of new energy infrastructure will need to be financed. And many of the world’s poorest people will still be deprived of modern energy services. These challenges call for urgent and decisive action by governments around the world.
A central message of this Outlook is that short-term risks to energy security will grow. Recent geopolitical developments and surging energy prices have brought that message dramatically home. Major oil- and gasimporters – including most OECD countries, China and India – will become ever more dependent on imports from distant, often politically-unstable parts of the world. Flexibility of oil demand and supply will diminish. Oil use will become ever more concentrated in transport uses in the absence of readilyavailable substitutes. Rising oil demand will have to be met by a small group of countries with large reserves, primarily Middle East members of OPEC and Russia. Booming trade will strengthen the mutual dependence among exporting and importing countries. But it will also exacerbate the risks that Executive Summary 29 wells or pipelines could be closed or tankers blocked by piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents. Rapid worldwide growth in natural gas consumption and trade will foster similar concerns.
If current government policies do not change, energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide will grow marginally faster than energy use.
CO2 emissions will be more than 60% higher in 2030 than now. The average carbon content of energy, which fell markedly during the past three decades, will hardly change. Well over two-thirds of the projected increase in emissions will come from developing countries, which will remain big users of coal – the most carbon-intensive of fuels. Power stations, cars and trucks will give off most of the increased energy-related emissions.
Converting the world’s resources into available supplies will require massive investments. In some cases, financing for new infrastructure will be hard to come by. Meeting projected demand will entail cumulative investment of some $16 trillion from 2003 to 2030, or $568 billion per year.
The electricity sector will absorb the majority of this investment. Developing countries, where production and demand are set to increase most, will require about half of global energy investment. Those countries will face the biggest challenge in raising finance, because their needs are larger relative to the size of their economies and because the investment risks are bigger. The global financial system has the capacity to fund the required investments, but it will not do so unless conditions are right.
Reducing energy poverty is an urgent necessity. There will be some encouraging advances in energy development in non-OECD countries over the projection period. But even for the most developed among them in energy terms, the use of modern energy and the per capita consumption of every kind of energy will remain far below that of OECD countries. Little progress will be made in reducing the total number of people who lack access to electricity.
And the ranks of those using traditional fuels in unsustainable and inefficient ways for cooking and heating will actually increase over the projection period.