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«Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as Market Timing Tools Contributors to this paper: Jerry Bowyer is the President of Bowyer Research Jay Ryan is author ...»

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Bowyer Research Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as

Market Timing Tools

Contributors to this paper:

Jerry Bowyer is the President of Bowyer Research

Jay Ryan is author of “Signs & Seasons; Understanding the

Elements of Classical Astronomy”

Charles Bowyer is a Research Analyst for Bowyer Research

For More Information:

Jerry Bowyer

jerry@bowyerresearch.com

Jay Ryan

http://www.classicalastronomy.com/ Bowyer Research Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as Market Timing Tools The hypothesis that the years 2014-2015 are of high prophetic significance based on the conjunction of lunar eclipses, Hebrew holidays and an alleged ‘Shemitah” year has gained rapid at- tention in evangelical Christian circles. This approach has be- come more than the thought of one or two men; it has become a movement. It appears that this movement started with the work of Pastor Mark Biltz, was picked up by a messianic Rabbi named Jonathan Cahn and by television evangelist, John Hagee. Books, DVDs, Study Guides, blogs and media appearances have multi- plied as the interest in this topic has intensified.

This white paper is not designed to examine one particular au- thor and/or one particular book. It is an attempt to factually test common claims associated with this movement. Not every claim dealt with in this paper is held by every promulgator of the gener- al point of view. The reason for this is that this paper is designed for the ordinary investor who is troubled by these claims at the grassroots level and at the grassroots level, these various ideas are widely drawn from various broadcasters, authors and speak- ers.

Those interested in learning more about the individual views should consult Blood Moons by Mark Biltz; Four Blood Moons by John Haggee or the work of Rabbi Cahn who has been probably the most prolific of these authors, and the one most focused on financial consequences of the events.

Summary of the View Rabbi Jonathan Cahn’s bestselling books, “The Harbinger” and “The Mystery of the Shemitah” along with Rabbi Cahn’s numer- ous sermons and media appearances propose the theory that a market collapse is likely to occur in the fall of 2015 in close prox- imity with the lunar eclipse of September 28th, and perhaps in the Spring in close proximity with the lunar eclipse of April 4th, and that other events of great prophetic significance are also 2 Bowyer Research Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as Market Timing Tools likely to occur this year. The theory holds that the law of Shemi- tah, that is the Torah stipulation which mandates a debt ‘release’ every seven years, applies not just to Israel, but to other nations such as the United States, as well.

Rabbi Cahn maintains that the Shemitah year system is turned from a blessing into a curse, particularly a financial curse when it is not observed. In addition, it is claimed that 2014-2015 is a Shemitah year and that this, along with the appearance of four lunar eclipses over a two year period (a tetrad) which fall on Hebrew holidays, constitutes a great convergence. For this reason the Rabbi suggests that investors be out of the stock market during the times of these blood moons, especially the one which falls on the beginning of Sukkot.

According to this point of view the Shemitah years are found below, from www.shemitah-blood-moons.net

–  –  –

Historical events associated with Shemitah years There are some major issues with historical claims made by the Shemitah theory advocates. The website www.shemitah-blood-moons.net, one of the most popular shemitah-theory sites, makes various claims about historical events which are alleged to have occurred during the Shemitah years of the first half of the 20th century.

Claim 1 “1917- America rises to power ending World War I. The rising of the Communist State of the Soviet Union.” Reality 1 While the U.S. did enter the First World War in 1917, they did not immediately end it. World War I ended 18th of November, 1918 – a full year after the end of the 1916-1917 Shemitah year. Stating that the war ended in 1917 is simply false, and the impact the U.S. entrance into the war had on its ultimate outcome is a matter of great debate among historians.

Claim 2 “1917- The defeat of Germany. The fall of the Czar of Russia.

The fall the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. The fall of the Turkish-Ottoman Empire.”

–  –  –

power on the Western front, as the Russian revolution ended the Eastern Front. The Central Powers were favored to win the war until General Ludendorff’s failed offensive in the spring of 1918.

In fact, the Allies suffered nearly 2 million more causalities by the end of the war than the Central Powers.

1918 is a much more significant year in the course of the war and the course of Christian civilization than the Shemitah year of 1916-1917.

Claim 3 “1938- German Nazis attack Jewish businesses and burn Jewish Synagogues on Kristallnacht (the Night of Broken Glass.)” Reality 3 Kristallnacht is, indeed, widely considered the starting date of the Holocaust, and is thus an incredibly significant event in the history of the Jewish people. There’s just one problem: it did not take place in a Shemitah year. The Shemitah year of 1937-1938 ended September 25th. Kristallnacht took place the night of November 9th, 1938; well after the end of that Shemitah year.





More widely speaking, September of 1939, the start of the Second World War, is by any measure a more historically significant year than 1937-1938 Shemitah year.

Claim 4 “1945- Nazi Germany is defeated. The Atomic bomb is dropped on Japan thus ending World War II. Japan signs peace treaty the same week of the end of the Shemitah year.”

–  –  –

the end of one of the most murderous states in human history, and the end of the world’s bloodiest conflict. It was most certainly a good year, not a bad one. 1945’s Shemitah year status might be considered evidence for a simply significant event taking place in a future Shemitah year, but it is not evidence for a catastrophic event.

Claim 5 “1945- The United States becomes a military super power.

The U.S. dollar becomes the world standard currency. The United States is the richest country in the world, and the world’s largest lender nation.” Reality 5 Another historical inaccuracy: the treaty that established the U.S.

dollar as the world’s reserve currency was signed in July of 1944, two months before the start of the 1944-1945 Shemitah year.

This is a more minor concern, but the super-power status of the United States at this time is highly debatable. Generally, International Relations scholars define a super-power as a state with significant global power projection capabilities, and the ability to fight two or more regional conflicts at the same time. The U.S.

did not have significant power projection capabilities in Eastern Europe, the Middle-East or Sub-Saharan Africa until well into the Cold War; in 1945, it needed to rely on partners, particularly the British Empire, to project power in these regions.

Historical events attributed to Blood Moons.

Lunar eclipses during the Biblical feasts are conventional occurrences for the simple reason that the Hebrew calendar is a lunar calendar. Certain Holy Days occur on new or full moons precisely because they are timed to them. It is no more surprising to find a full moon on the feast of Booths, than it is to find the sun at its apogee in the sky at the same time that people are eating sandwiches. Noon is the time when the sun is highest (or close 6 Bowyer Research Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as Market Timing Tools to it), and we schedule lunch at noon. There is nothing supernatural about this, except the ‘miracle’ of the regularity of the skies.

The Biblical calendar is keyed mainly to the moon; in fact, ‘new moons and festivals’ is a Pauline short-hand for the keeping of Jewish festivals.

That having been said, the current “tetrad” of four consecutive total lunar eclipses during the feasts of Passover and Tabernacles in 2014 and 2015 is admittedly rare. But apart from their astronomical significance, do they possess ‘prophetic’ significance, or significance in terms of the rise and fall of nations as advocates have claimed? The “Blood Moon” devotees have asserted that previous similar tetrads have transpired with prophetically significant events in Jewish history: accompanying the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 (a popular event with eschatologists);

with the Six-Day War between Israel and Egypt in 1967; and previously, with the expulsion of the Jews from Spain in 1492.

However, a comparison of the relevant dates shows that the historical events actually occurred BEFORE most or all of the eclipses of the associated tetrad. The relevant historical event is bolded, and the astronomical events are in orange.

1948 May 14 (Israel established) 1949 Apr 13 (Passover - total eclipse) 1949 Oct 07 (Sukkoth - total eclipse) 1950 Apr 02 (Passover - total eclipse) 1950 Sep 26 (Sukkoth - total eclipse) 1967 Apr 24 (Passover - total eclipse) 1967 Jun 05 (Six Day War) 1967 Oct 18 (Sukkoth - total eclipse) 1968 Apr 13 (Passover - total eclipse) 1968 Oct 06 (Sukkoth - total eclipse)

–  –  –

1493 Sep 25 (Sukkoth - total eclipse) 1494 Mar 22 (Passover - total eclipse) 1494 Sep 15 (Sukkoth - total eclipse) It does not seem that “signs in the heavens” would have much prophetic value if they occur AFTER the event with which they are associated. If it were the case, if we were to continue the pattern established by these previous tetrads, the current eclipses of ’14 and ’15 should have been preceded by some Biblically significant event in Jewish history.

It also seems doubtful that such events can reasonably be inferred to act as ‘signs’ to the people of Israel if they are not visible from Israel. How can a sign which appears only in the Western hemisphere, or even over the Atlantic Ocean possibly be a sign for the people of Israel? Several of these blood moons, that is lunar eclipses, were invisible from Israel. More on this below.

It has been noted that there have been other lunar eclipse/Biblical feast tetrads in history:

A.D. 162-163 A.D. 795-796 A.D. 842-843 A.D. 860-861 None of these events appear to coincide with any major event in Jewish history. In fact, the first of these tetrads, 162-163 AD, takes place 30 years after one of the most important dates in Jewish history: the Bar Kokhba rebellion. The Bar Kokhba rebellion of 132-136 AD was a massive revolt by the native Jewish population in the Roman province of Judea that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Jews, the barring of Jews from entering Jerusalem, and the outlawing of Torah law in Judea.

–  –  –

that took place in 795-796 AD was the creation of a series of buffer states in northern Spain by the Carolingian Empire. This had little importance in the larger Christian-Muslim war in Spain, and no direct relavence to the Jewish people.

The tetrad of 842-843 coincided with no major event in the history of the Jewish people or Jewish homeland. The only major event in this period was a treaty that broke up the Carolingian Empire, but this was after a brief civil war regarding dynastic affairs, not religion.

The final of these dates, 860-861, also did not coincide with any event of major importance to the Jewish people. The most important date of 860-861 was the defeat by the Byzantine Empire of the last Arab invasion of the Turkish region - again, this has no direct importance to the Jewish people. The significance of this event in Christian history is also high debatable. considering the Turkish state replaced the Arab states as the major threat to Christian civilization just two centuries later.

One might think that eclipses portending events in the history of Israel should be visible from Israel. However, this is not the case with the current “Blood Moons.” As seen from Israel, the eclipsed moon would be invisibly hidden below the horizon for three of the four eclipses of the 2014-2015 tetrad. Only the eclipse of September 28, 2015 will be visible from Israel, and even then, the Moon will not enter the stage of total eclipse until less than an hour before sunrise, local time. It seems unlikely that a set of eclipses that are mostly invisible from Israel can have any value as portents concerning the nation of Israel.

Moreover, some of the eclipses of the previous tetrads were also invisible from Israel. The total lunar eclipses of 1493, 1494, 1949 and 1950 were at least partially visible from Israel. However, both of the total eclipses of 1967 and one of the eclipses from 1968 were completely invisible from Israel. The other eclipse of 1968 would have only been seen in a stage of partial eclipse, just beBowyer Research Shemitah Years and Blood Moons as Market Timing Tools fore sunrise. At the very least, there is no consistency to such a pattern of “signs and wonders” as concerning the state of Israel. Thus, there should be little reason to expect that the Israelis themselves would have construed such eclipses as portents having any prophetic correlation to the associated events.

There is no clear pattern with the blood moon tetrads suggesting any relevance to the nation of Israel. Based on the astronomical circumstances, there is no apparent significance of a tetrad of lunar eclipses that coincide with the Biblical feasts. Certainly there is no reason to regard these alignments as momentous and apocalyptic. Rather, these eclipses simply represent a fortuitous convergence of celestial cycles, with the Earth and Moon following the paths ordained by their Creator, determined beforehand through modern celestial mechanics, and confirmed with our eyes by direct observation of the sky.

–  –  –

Rabbi Cahn points out that out of the ten largest stock market declines in the past 100 years, 8 of them occurred on Shemitah years, and this suggests a major market correction is about to occur.

He does not provide underlying data for this claim, but our analysis shows that this claim can only be based on point declines in stock markets, not percentage declines. If one looks at single day point declines one can verify the 8 out of 10 number.



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